China is leading the world in moving away from fossil fuels [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/05/china-green-energy-sector-investment-growth], and the rest of the globe – including the US – must now follow, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has told the Guardian, as COP watchers wonder exactly how China is going to approach this year’s climate summit.
As COP31 opens – this year the climate conference is in Turkey [https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey] – there is plenty of speculation about whether China will finally step into the leadership role that it has long avoided. In its latest “five-year plan” adopted in March 2026, China for the first time pledged to “actively participate in and lead global climate governance”. COP31 could provide the first indications Beijing is ready to put that rhetoric into action, something it has historically been reluctant to do.
Green energy is a vital component of the export engine that has kept China’s sluggish post-pandemic economy on track. The success of its exports stands in contrast to its failure to significantly boost domestic general consumption, a structural weakness that has persistently vexed leaders.
In 2025, clean-tech exports surpassed $220bn, and they should grow again this year; the world’s largest emitter is now the world’s leading supplier of clean energy technology. China accounts for about 85% of solar and 80% of lithium-ion battery [https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2026/supply-chain-risks-and-industrial-competitiveness] supply chain production capacity, and in 2025, nearly 75% of electric cars were manufactured there.
Smart moves now by China would position it as a linchpin in a future electrostate world order, persuade rivals to cooperate, and solidify its influence in the global south.
Meanwhile, other countries, including the US under Donald Trump, have fallen badly behind. Kerry said they would lose out economically – as well as putting the climate in further danger – unless they, too, embraced low-carbon power and rapid electrification. “The only country that has hugely accelerated is China. The rest of the world is stumbling along while Mother Nature is sending us more powerful signals every week, every day,” he said.
“[China] realised suddenly they had way too much dependency on oil and gas from other places, and they decided they needed to be independent. Other countries, since the war in Iran, and since the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted, have made a similar decision, and they’re moving independently. There’s been a massive uptick in deployment of renewables. Thank you, Donald Trump.”
For autocratic states without free and fair elections [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/18/climate-crisis-fossil-fuels-autocracies-authoritorian-countries], seeing the economic benefits reaped by China would be the spur to adopt low-carbon growth, he added. “They’ll see where the market is going, and they will recognise where the cheaper alternatives are. Even they can read a spreadsheet, and understand where costs are exorbitant [in fossil fuels], and where you have a better deal,” Kerry said. “Right now, renewables together with storage, together with some transitional gas, is cheaper and more effective than just going with fossil fuels.”
He added: “The marketplace has made its decision and globally is moving to electrons, and electrostate status. People are going to electricity and they’re going to try to do that as clean as humanly possible. That’s the choice that I see being implemented in many different places. It is unstoppable.”
China has already said it wants COP31 [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/cop31] to discuss the free flow of green technology against a backdrop of “intensifying” geopolitical conflicts – widely seen as a reference to US and EU tariffs on items such as Chinese electric vehicles and solar products.
Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) puts it this way [https://www.wri.org/climate-diplomacy-messy-world/climate-diplomacy-chinese-dimensions]: “In a world where climate action was once seen as a constraint on growth but is now increasingly a driver of it, China faces a singular question: will it step into a leadership role not out of obligation, but out of self-interest?”
The summit’s presidency has promised [https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4th_Presidency_Letter_signed_Kurum_Bowen.pdf] this COP will be one of “implementation and acceleration” – and when it comes to the green transition, nowhere has implemented or accelerated quite like China. As a result, emissions have been in a “flat or falling” trend since March 2024, analysis for Carbon Brief shows [https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-quarterly-co2-falls-3-in-largest-drop-since-covid].
Beijing sees the energy transition as “central to economic modernisation and energy security, with significant implications for international influence”, said Kevin Tu from the Oxford Institute for Energy [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/energy] Studies. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and their effect on oil and gas supplies have only hardened that stance.
The conflicts have also highlighted the geopolitical implications of a planetary shift to green energy. In the fossil fuel era, the designation of the US dollar as the global trading currency for oil gave Washington “what has been termed the exorbitant privilege of being the global lender of last resort”, said Isabel Hilton, the founder of the specialist environment outlet China Dialogue. “Without that, the US position in the world looks weaker, and if you add China’s dominance of the supply of clean technologies and the supply chains that produce them, US dominance looks more vulnerable still.”
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Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping describes China as a “doer and go-getter working for the cause of global development” and state media frequently showcase Chinese renewable projects in countries ranging from Indonesia to Pakistan and Kenya. The value of the green energy deals in China’s belt and road initiative in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the total for the whole of 2025, a recent analysis showed [https://greenfdc.org/chinas-investment-and-construction-engagement-in-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-2026-h1/].
Those countries could be useful allies if China can get the subject of tariffs into the talks. “China is likely to find support from Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries concerned about the costs and market-access effects of climate-related trade measures,” said Tu.
China has generally held back from policy ambition or agenda-setting at forums such as COP. Its attitude to the plans to set a global target for electrification has been ambivalent, even though it would easily hit it, according to ASPI’s Kate Logan. Partly, China has an aversion to prescriptive outside targets, but it is also trying to navigate the divergent interests of its global south partners.
Yixian Sun, a professor of sustainability governance at the University of Bath, said: “I still think there is a mismatch between Chinese policymakers’ views on the role that China can play in global climate governance and international expectations on the influence that China should exert.”
If the world wants China to play a leadership role, the environment needs to change, and more trust extended, he says. “They have to be ready to accept China’s leadership, and I don’t think this is the case, especially for global north countries”.
Analysts will watch China’s actions around climate finance commitments and support for a “just transition” – a framework designed to secure workers’ rights and livelihoods in the move away from fossil fuels.
They will also be looking for signals Beijing will bid for COP33 in 2028; officials are said to be trying to decide if hosting would be beneficial.
For now, said Logan, “China would be happy with a COP that doesn’t necessarily produce anything monumental, but comes out with a relatively cooperative outcome … So no major drama.”
Fuente: The Guardian